Including measures of chronic kidney disease to improve cardiovascular risk prediction by SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP

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Including measures of chronic kidney disease to improve cardiovascular risk prediction by SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP

08/2022 - European Journal of Preventive Cardiology

Including measures of chronic kidney disease to improve cardiovascular risk prediction by SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP

Authors:

Kunihiro Matsushita, Stephen Kaptoge, Steven H J Hageman, Yingying Sang, Shoshana H Ballew, Morgan E Grams, Aditya Surapaneni, Luanluan Sun, Johan Arnlov, Milica Bozic, Hermann Brenner, Nigel J Brunskill, Alex R Chang, Rajkumar Chinnadurai, Massimo Cirillo, Adolfo Correa, Natalie Ebert, Kai-Uwe Eckardt, Ron T Gansevoort, Orlando Gutierrez, Farzad Hadaegh, Jiang He, Shih-Jen Hwang, Tazeen H Jafar, Simerjot K Jassal, Takamasa Kayama, Csaba P Kovesdy, Gijs W Landman, Andrew S Levey, Donald M Lloyd-Jones, Rupert W Major, Katsuyuki Miura, Paul Muntner, Girish N Nadkarni, Christoph Nowak, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Michelle J Pena, Kevan R Polkinghorne, Toshimi Sairenchi, Elke Schaeffner, Markus P Schneider, Varda Shalev, Michael G Shlipak, Marit D Solbu, Nikita Stempniewicz, James Tollitt, José M Valdivielso, Joep Van Der Leeuw, Angela Yee-Moon Wang, Chi-Pang Wen, Mark Woodward, Kazumasa Yamagishi, Hiroshi Yatsuya, Luxia Zhang, Jannick A N Dorresteijn, Emanuele Di Angelantonio, Frank L J Visseren, Lisa Pennells, Josef Coresh

Abstract:

Aims

The 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention categorizes moderate and severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) as high and very-high CVD risk status regardless of other factors like age and does not include estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria in its algorithms, systemic coronary risk estimation 2 (SCORE2) and systemic coronary risk estimation 2 in older persons (SCORE2-OP), to predict CVD risk. We developed and validated an ‘Add-on’ to incorporate CKD measures into these algorithms, using a validated approach.

Methods

In 3,054 840 participants from 34 datasets, we developed three Add-ons [eGFR only, eGFR + urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) (the primary Add-on), and eGFR + dipstick proteinuria] for SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. We validated C-statistics and net reclassification improvement (NRI), accounting for competing risk of non-CVD death, in 5,997 719 participants from 34 different datasets.

Results

In the target population of SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP without diabetes, the CKD Add-on (eGFR only) and CKD Add-on (eGFR + ACR) improved C-statistic by 0.006 (95%CI 0.004–0.008) and 0.016 (0.010–0.023), respectively, for SCORE2 and 0.012 (0.009–0.015) and 0.024 (0.014–0.035), respectively, for SCORE2-OP. Similar results were seen when we included individuals with diabetes and tested the CKD Add-on (eGFR + dipstick). In 57 485 European participants with CKD, SCORE2 or SCORE2-OP with a CKD Add-on showed a significant NRI [e.g. 0.100 (0.062–0.138) for SCORE2] compared to the qualitative approach in the ESC guideline.

Conclusion

Our Add-ons with CKD measures improved CVD risk prediction beyond SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. This approach will help clinicians and patients with CKD refine risk prediction and further personalize preventive therapies for CVD.